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With ten current or former Governors running for President, these upcoming elections could not only have a huge impact on the states these executives will preside over, but they could serve as a launching pad for future Presidential campaigns.
Before we get to 2016, though, there are three states that will hold gubernatorial elections this year. Voters in Kentucky and Louisiana will vote on replacements for term-limited governors Steve Beshear (D) and Bobby Jindal (R). Meanwhile in Mississippi, voters will almost certainly re-elect Governor Phil Bryant (R) who is opposed by truck driver Robert Gray.
Here are seats that will be up for grabs in 2016:
State
Governor
Delaware
Jack Markell (D)*
Indiana
Mike Pence (R)
Missouri
Jay Nixon (D)*
Montana
Steve Bullock (D)
New Hampshire
Maggie Hassan (D)
North Carolina
Pat McCrory (R)
North Dakota
Jack Dalrymple (R)#
Oregon
Kate Brown (D)
Utah
Gary Herbert (R)
Vermont
Peter Shumlin (D)#
Washington
Jay Inslee (D)
West Virginia
Earl Ray Tomblin (D)*
*-cannot run for re-election, term-limited
#-has announced will not run for re-election
ISRI makes tracking state elections simple with the exclusive access ReMA members have to MultiState policy services, including the following gubernatorial election insight from MultiState Insider.
In Delaware, Congressman John Carney (D) recently announced his candidacy and is seen as the favorite to replace outgoing Governor Jack Markell. Carney lost the primary to Markell in 2008 and is serving his third term in Congress. The only major Republican candidate to enter the race thus far is Dover-area state Senator Colin Bonini.
Indiana Governor Mike Pence (R) was looking like a heavy favorite for re-election until his poll numbers took a hit following his signing of the Religious Freedom Restoration Act last session. John R. Gregg (D), a former Indiana Speaker of the House who Pence barely defeated in 2012, has declared his candidacy for a possible re-match.
Seven Republicans have already lined up to replace Governor Jay Nixon (D) in Missouri, which may lead to a contentious and costly primary. Lt. Governor Peter Kinder is the favorite among Republicans, but former Speaker of the Missouri House Catherine Hanaway has the backing of St. Louis financier Rex Sinquefield. With no limits on campaign contributions, that could be a huge advantage over other candidates like businessman John Brunner, state Senator Bob Dixon, state Representative Bart Korman, and former Navy SEAL Eric Greitens. The winner will likely face Attorney General Chris Koster (D), who once served in the Missouri Senate as a Republican.
In Montana, Republicans are expected to invest heavily in unseating incumbent Governor Steve Bullock (D) in 2016. Tech entrepreneur Greg Gianforte is formally exploring a run as a Republican, as is Public Service Commission Chair Brad Johnson. Currently, the only Republican officially in the race is antiques dealer Mark Perea, who lost his bid for a state legislative seat in 2012.
New Hampshire holds a gubernatorial election every two years. Governor Maggie Hassan (D) is up for re-election for a third term, but there are rumors she may instead try to unseat U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte (R). Christopher Sununu, son of the former Governor and George H.W. Bush Chief of Staff John Sununu, is the only declared Republican candidate, although many more could enter the race, particularly if Hassan decides not to run.
Poor approval ratings have hurt North Carolina incumbent Governor Pat McCrory (R), as have feuds with the Republican-controlled legislature over budget issues and the legislature’s more socially-conservative agenda. Former state lawmaker Roy Cooper (D), who has served as Attorney General since 2000, has announced he will challenge McCrory and is currently neck-and-neck in polling.
In North Dakota, incumbent Governor Jack Dalyrmple (R) recently announced he will not seek re-election for a second full-term. Despite the opening, U.S. Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D) has declined to run for Governor, making it difficult for Democrats to win their first Governor’s race in the state since 1988. No Republican has formally entered the race, although Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem, Lt. Governor Drew Wrigley, State Treasurer Kelly Schmidt, and state Senator Tom Campbell are all reportedly considering a run.
John Kitzhaber (D) was elected in 2014, but he resigned just a month into his fourth term as Oregon’s Governor following a criminal investigation for public corruption. Lt. Governor Kate Brown (D) succeeded Kitzhaber, but a special election will be held in 2016 to fill the remaining two years of the term, with Brown announcing she will be a candidate. Official candidate filing began in September with only political novice Dr. Bud Pierce, an oncologist, filing as a Republican candidate. Former U.S. Senator Monica Wehby (R) and 2014 Republican gubernatorial nominee Dennis Richardson have already said they will not run.
Despite strong approval ratings, Utah Governor Gary Herbert (R) will face a caucus opponent, former Overstock.com CEO Jonathan Johnson. The political novice has emphasized a small government, pro-business agenda. No Democratic candidate has yet to announce a run.
Vermont Governor Peter Shumlin (D) announced he would not seek a fourth two-year term, leading to a cavalry of candidates to announce their intent to replace him. House Speaker Shap Smith is the likely frontrunner on the Democratic side with former state Senator Matt Dunne and former Transportation Secretary Sue Minter trailing in early polls. Lt. Governor Phil Scott (R) enjoys great name recognition, giving him the advantage over fellow Republican Bruce Lisman, a political novice who made his name as a Wall Street executive.
Washington Incumbent Jay Inslee (D) has shown vulnerability in the polls, but as a Democrat would still have an advantage in next year’s election. Seattle Port Commissioner Bill Bryant is the only Republican to declare his candidacy and he has already picked up some important endorsements from the Republican establishment. U.S. Congressman Dave Reichert (R) is still considering a run, although he has never run for statewide office before.
West Virginia Governor Earl Ray Tomblin (D) won a special election in 2011 and re-election in 2012, but he is term-limited for 2016. U.S. Senator Joe Manchin, who left the Governorship in 2011, has declined a run, opening up a battle between the two party leaders in the state Senate. Senate President Bill Cole (R) leads in polls against Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler (D). However, Cole trails in polling against Democratic candidate Jim Justice, a prominent West Virginia businessman best known for saving the Greenbrier luxury resort.