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As the palace intrigue continues, the important legislative issues including addressing the nation’s debt ceiling, authorizing the spending for FY2016, establishing a new two-year budget, and reauthorizing a major transportation package and the Export-Import Bank.    

Debt Limit

Republican House lawmakers want to give the Senate plenty of time to act ahead of Nov. 3, the date when Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew projects ‘extraordinary measures’ will be exhausted. But the exact deadline remains a moving target. The Treasury Department now says the last day Congress has to increase the government's borrowing authority is Nov. 3; its previous estimate was Nov. 5. But independent analysts at the Bipartisan Policy Center caution against viewing that as the so-called “X-Date,” meaning the day on which the world’s lone superpower actually would default on its debts.  The Congressional Budget Office on the other hand, says lawmakers might have a few more days to avoid a potentially catastrophic national debt default than the Treasury Department projects. By CBO’s estimate, the Treasury would most likely be able to continue borrowing and have sufficient cash to make its usual payments through sometime in the first half of November without an increase in the debt limit. So Congress has a few more days – maybe weeks – to pass a debt limit increase.  The current debt limit is $18.1 trillion. The increase would come in the form of another debt limit suspension, likely through 2017. Though many Republicans would oppose the clean bill, it would receive overwhelming support from House Democrats, as did the suspension last year.  However, even if every Democrat were to vote for a clean debt limit increase, 30 Republicans would be needed for passage, and it’s not clear there are enough votes to get the job done. And Republicans can’t do it on their own without the 30 or so members of the Freedom Caucus who instead want certain off-sets and pay-for’s without any tax hikes, but such a plan is a nonstarter with the Obama administration, which reaffirmed its stance that it will not negotiate on entitlement spending to raise the debt limit.

Budget Deal

Most lawmakers in both parties and both chambers have kept quiet about budget talks in hopes of not further intensifying the current bad atmosphere on Capitol Hill. 

However, recently, the White House has chimed in that it has been negotiating with outgoing Speaker Boehner.  Speaker Boehner wants to clear the deck before his likely successor, Paul Ryan (R-WI) take over the leadership position.  On the other side of the Hill, Senator Richard J. Durbin, D-IL, said his staff has been going back and forth on offsets and don’t have enough mutually agreed upon ones for even a one-year deal.  Making matters worse, most do not agree there is enough serious negotiating because the debt ceiling it is non-negotiable.

Highway Bill

The House unveiled a six-year surface transportation reauthorization proposal, but the measure does not propose any new ways to pay for programs. The legislation was rolled out as pressure grows for lawmakers to act before the program runs out of money at the end of the month.  While the measure contains no new pay-fors, it outlines some policy changes from the last surface transportation reauthorization measure, which was a two-year bill known as MAP-21.   (Those include consolidating and eliminating offices within the Department of Transportation; streamlining environmental review and permitting processes; and establishing a Nationally Significant Freight and Highway Projects Program, the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee said in a news release Friday morning. For the highway program, the bill would fund roughly $38.4 billion from the Highway Trust Fund for fiscal year 2016, gradually increasing it to nearly $42.5 billion by fiscal year 2021.  Others have suggested that with comprehensive tax reform, a provision to allow repatriation of offshore funds at a lower tax rate would pay for the transportation bill in its entirety.  However, this option is unpopular since that same money is slated to reduce marginal tax rates – a linchpin for comprehensive tax reform.  Along with the presidential election heating up, comprehensive tax reform is being put off until after 2017.

Social Security

Social Security beneficiaries won’t receive an annual raise in 2016, the Social Security Administration announced.  Due to low inflation in recent months held down by low gas prices, there won’t be any cost-of-living adjustment in January for nearly 65 million Americans who receive Social Security and Supplemental Security Income benefits. That marks just the third time in 40 years that benefits haven’t increased — only in 2010 and 2011 did recipients’ monthly payments remain flat from the previous year. Beneficiaries saw a 1.5 percent bump in 2014 and a 1.7 percent increase in 2015. Automatic cost-of-living adjustments went into effect in 1975 to ensure that the purchasing power of Social Security benefits doesn’t erode with inflation. The adjustment is based on the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers, known as CPI-W, which is calculated by the Labor Department. 

Export-Import Bank

The Ex-Im Bank authority expired in June after a six month reprieve and has become a very controversial subject with strong Republican Freedom Caucus objections. The Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) has blocked the reauthorization package from moving to the House Floor even before the six month extension last December.  However, a group of House Republicans lead by Steven Fincher (R-TN) filed a rarely used Discharge Petition to bypass the Financial Services Committee and send the bill straight to the Rules Committee and onto the House Floor.  Congressman Fincher is the sponsor of the Republican version of the Ex-Im Bank reauthorization bill.  He was joined by many Democrats who have their own largely similar version.  Yesterday, the House voted to reauthorize the Export-Import Bank by a wide 313-118 margin; 127 Republicans voted for reauthorization. The bank’s new life likely depends on a conference committee to resolve House and Senate differences.