The Importance of Congressional Elections

All Americans need to take those races as seriously as they do the presidential race. Listen to the candidates, challenge them to answer your questions about your business and/or personal needs.

Every four years, the nation goes to the polls to vote for president and vice-president. Every two years, the nation goes to the polls to elect the entire House of Representatives and at least one-third of the U.S. Senate.  In many recent elections, the balance of power in the legislative branch is up for grabs.  This election will provide plenty of opportunities for both political parties to grab control of one or both of the chambers of Congress.

The importance of the legislative branch cannot be underestimated.  The Congress is the institution where laws are made, oversight of the executive occurs and, as importantly, money is raised and spent.  As outlined by the founders, Congress is an equal branch of government along with the executive and judicial branches.  Therefore, electing the members of Congress is a way for American citizens to affect their government.

STATE OF PLAY

The U.S. House of Representatives

In the U.S. House of Representatives, Republicans control 247 seats versus 188 for the Democrats.  There are already several important retirements including Steve Israel (D-NY) who recently chaired the Democratic Congressional Committee (DCCC).  There are also some seats that flip back and forth between the two political parties.  And, last election’s upsets are usually the most vulnerable and targeted races including Marth McSally (R-AZ) and Bob Dold (R-IL) having only won by a few hundred or even a few dozen votes after recounts.  These will be exciting races to watch!

A lot goes into a party’s decisions about which of the opposition’s incumbents will be challenged. These include, among many other things, the political leanings of that particular congressional district and how that district voted in the last presidential election. When a lawmaker holds a seat in the opposing party’s turf, you can expect a serious challenger with lots of outside money and attention.

Political strategists talk of districts in terms of R+2 or D+3 meaning they lean two or three percentage points towards one party or the other.  When a party holds a district with a very narrow margin, that is most likely where there will be a lot of effort and money spent to unseat a lawmaker.   

The U.S. Senate

The U.S. Senate is divided: 54 Republicans and 44 Democrats with one additional Independent (Angus King (ME). Bernie Sanders (VT) was an independent, but has declared himself a Democrat as he began his run for the presidency. Sen. King caucuses and votes with the Democrats, bringing their total to 46. If a tie were to occur, Vice President Joe Biden would break that tie. 

There are 34 seats in cycle in the 2016 election, with 24 Republican and 10 Democratic seats up for grabs.  Republicans have three retirees (Florida, Louisiana, and Indiana) while the Democrats also have three (Maryland, Nevada, and California).  The 2018 election cycle will have the opposite scenario when the Democrats will be defending many more seats than the Republicans, combined with the disadvantage of mid-term elections, which normally favor the party that does not control the White House. 

There are also a few retirements (Barbara Boxer (D-CA)), Barbara Mikulski (D-MD), Dan Coasts (R-IN), David Vitter (R-LA), Harry Reid (D-NV), and Marco Rubio (R-FL).  None of these races to replace these senators looks like the retiree’s seat will flip to the opposing party – at least not at this point.

There are several highly competitive races to watch that could be the difference as to which party, Republican or Democrat will retain the majority in the Senate.  The most vulnerable of all the senators in the 2016 cycle is Mark Kirk (R-IL) who won by a very thin margin in a non-presidential election year.  Two others are Senators Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Pat Toomey (R-PA).  Both won with thin margins and both states generally favor Democrats, especially in presidential election years.  Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) is another tight race to watch.

ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES

Voting for candidates that share your values is the most important civic duty we all are bestowed with and we should not take that duty lightly.  This is our opportunity to have our say about how we want our country to move forward into the future. 

Accordingly, the majorities in Congress are extremely important toward advancing or stopping important initiatives such as healthcare, defense and terrorism, immigration, taxes, etc.  This is because the organization of the legislative branch revolves around a committee structure with the leadership playing an outsized role in the procedures and process of Congress.  That means that initiatives often can be frustrated by a few lawmakers.  The majority in either chamber has the authority to set the rules of the game and to largely ignore the minority especially in the House.  In the Senate however, the minority can wreak havoc and bring the Senate to a grinding halt unless the majority has at least 60 votes – sometimes meaning not just 60 seats since senators don’t always vote with their party.

In both the House and Senate the majority appoints all committee chairmen. The minority gets to select the ranking member (or the leader of the minority) on that committee.  However, the chairmen determine what issues the committee will address, when the committee will meet, and decide what bills will get hearings and, ultimately, which bills might get to the chamber floor for votes - the minority does not have such powers.  It is not one big happy family.

In this presidential election year, the House of Representatives is most likely to remain in Republican control.  That means the Republicans will choose the Speaker of the House and run every House committee.  On the other side of the Hill, it will be difficult but not impossible for the Republicans to retain their majority, but they will have to run the table especially as several freshman Republican Senators are in Democratic leaning states. 

The Republicans will need to hang onto a couple of their vulnerable seats and possibly pick up an open seat to make up for any losses.  On the other hand, the Democrats, with a big turnout for the Presidential election, need to defend their open seats and pick up about 4-5 seats to retake the majority. Should they become the majority in the Senate, Chuck Schumer of New York will be the Senate Majority Leader, thus demoting Mitch McConnell to Minority Leader.  If that happens, the Democrats will also take over all the committees and the Republicans will again become the loyal opposition for two years.  In 2018, the fortunes may easily change again demonstrating why it is so important as an industry trade association to cultivate and maintain a bi-partisan cadre of lawmakers who understand and appreciate the important role the scrap recycling industry plays in driving the nation’s economy and protecting the environment.