What Every Political Junkie Lives for…Your Guide to the 2016 Presidential Election(s)
By Mark Reiter
It is undoubtedly obvious to us all that the election of President of the United States is important to us on a personal level and from an industry perspective. The two parties, and their respective presidential candidates come to the table with different ideas about economic and labor policy, taxes, and many other issues. Every four years we are asked to exercise our civic responsibility and go to the polls to cast our votes for President and Vice President. The resulting winner, and the people she or he brings into government, will have a profound impact on our lives and our businesses for the next four years. Hopefully, this short description of the primary process and how it differs among the two parties will help you better understand the process as you are bombarded with ads and news reports about the primaries that will lead us to the July Democratic and Republican conventions.
First things first: is it an election or elections?
Come on everyone – you have a 50 percent chance of being right (or wrong). Election or elections? And, this is not a trick question!
Well, remember the Electoral College? And remember the grand compromise of our nation’s constitution (small states/large states)? The number of electors assigned to each state equals the number of Congressmen representing the state + its two Senators. (For example, Virginia has 11 Congressmen and two Senators. Therefore, it sends 13 electors to the Electoral College.) Each state’s electors are chosen by its voters in the presidential election. Each party in each state presents a list of electors. In every state but Nebraska and Maine, electors are chosen on a winner-take-all basis. While you may think you are voting for one of the presidential candidates (and the vice presidential candidate of the same party), in fact you are not. You are voting for your state’s electors. In all but Nebraska and Maine, a majority vote for one party’s electors wins all of that state’s electoral votes. So, the answer to the question is that the presidential election is actually 51 elections (the 50 states and the District of Columbia.)
So, how do we get to the point of choosing electors?
The presidential primaries, of course.
The first thing to know that, as between the parties, the road to their conventions is through a process known in science as “equifinality.” It simply means different ends to the same means. The way the Democratic and the Republican Parties’ candidates get to the nominations of their respective party is quite different. The number of total delegates to be sent to the July nominating conventions is different. The way those delegates are won, state-by-state is also different. We’ll next describe the Republican’s (or “Rs” as we say it in DC), and Democrat’s (or “Ds”), primary election rules.
The Republicans
During the Republican presidential primaries, a total of 2, 472 delegates will be chosen, nationally. To become the nominee of the Republican Party, a candidate needs the support of a majority of delegates (1,237) at their Cleveland, Ohio convention. The same is true for the vice presidential nominee.
For a primary contender to be eligible to be the GOP’s nominee, per the GOP’s Convention Rule 40, the candidate needs the votes of a majority of delegates in eight states. It is possible that more than one candidate will garner the majority support of delegates in eight states, but no candidate will arrive at the convention with a majority of delegate support. Bloomberg Politics has written, “If three or more Republican candidates are still competitive in the presidential race beyond March 15,…it will be difficult to avoid a situation in which no candidate accumulates over 50 percent of delegates.” In such a situation, the nominee is chosen in a “contested election,” where the delegates on the convention floor will vote by secret ballot.
However, it is possible that a candidate will lay claim to the nomination prior to the convention. During the first six weeks of the primary voting season all but one of the states will award delegates proportionally (i.e., votes will be distributed to candidates based on the percentage of the vote they received). Beginning with Super Tuesday voting on March 15, states can award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis, i.e., the winner of a state can be awarded all of that state’s delegates, rather than distributing them proportionally. A total of 56 percent (1,384) of all the delegates will have been awarded at the end of Super Tuesday.
If a secret ballot vote does not result in the selection of a nominee, delegates will then vote openly from the floor in what is termed a “brokered” convention. Voting in the brokered convention will continue until a nominee is chosen. The last contested Republican convention was in 1976. In that convention, then-President Gerald Ford defeated Ronald Reagan in the secret ballot. The last GOP convention that was brokered occurred in 1948, when Gov. Thomas Dewey of New York won the nomination after the third round of balloting.
Rule 40 can be changed a week prior to the convention when the delegates meet in Cleveland. However, should the rule be changed at that point, so close to convention voting, havoc would likely ensue.
The Democrats
The nominee of the Democratic Party must secure the support of a majority of its convention’s delegates. There are two types of Democratic delegates: pledged and unpledged. Pledged delegates are committed to support the candidate to whom they are pledged. The 15 percent threshold: candidates can only receive a share of the pledged delegates if they receive a minimum of 15 percent of the preferences expressed in a caucus or a minimum of 15 percent of the votes they receive in a primary election.
Among the Democrats, unpledged delegates are called “superdelegates.” Superdelegates are Democratic Members of the Congress, Democratic Governors, and members of the Democratic National Committee or distinguished party leaders. In 2016, Democrats will elect 4,051 pledged delegates and there will be approximately 713 Superdelegates. To become the Democratic Party nominee, a candidate for President will have to secure the support of a total of 2,383 pledged- and super-delegates.
Should no candidate arrive at the convention in Philadelphia with a majority of delegate support, the fight for the nomination would go to the convention floor, Under the Democrat’s Convention Rule 12, “delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.” The view is that pledged delegates are obligated for the first round of voting, after which they are free to vote for whomever they wish. The Democrats last had a brokered convention in 1952. Gov. Adlai Stevenson and Sen. Estes Kefauver went three ballots before Gov. Stevenson won the nomination.
Upcoming Key 2016 Dates
Thursday, February 11 Wisconsin Democratic Primary Debate
Saturday, February 13 Republican Primary Debate, Greenville, SC
Saturday, February 20 Nevada Democratic Caucus South Carolina Republican Primary
Tuesday, February 23 Nevada Republican Caucus
Thursday, February 24 Republican Primary Debate, Houston, TX
Saturday, February 27 South Carolina Democratic Primary
Tuesday, March 1 AK, ND, WY Republican Caucuses
American Samoa Democratic Caucus
AL, AR,CO,GA, MA, MN, OK, TN, TX, VT, VA,
Democratic & Republican Primaries/Caucuses