January/February 2004
All eyes were turned eastward—to Eastern Europe and the Far East—at BIR’s fall meeting, where speakers continued to stress China’s powerful influence on global scrap trade.
By Kent Kiser
The weather was cold in Vienna, Austria, in October—when the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) (Brussels, Belgium) held its fall meeting—but the market reports at that event told of hot demand for most scrap commodities around the globe. To no one’s surprise, China’s insatiable appetite for scrap was credited as the principal fuel behind the flaming demand.
That said, BIR’s fall meeting wasn’t “all China, all the time.” The event also focused on the current status and future prospects of Eastern—or, as some called them, Emerging—European countries, which was appropriate given Vienna’s strong history as a link between Western and Eastern Europe.
This summary reviews the market reports offered for ferrous, nonferrous, stainless, and paper, noting the good news—as well as the potential concerns—in various regions throughout the world.
Ferrous Flies High Again
Ferrous Division President Robert Philip of Hugo Neu Schnitzer Global Trade L.L.C. (New York City) captured the sentiments of many ferrous scrap executives when he stated, “The market conditions we see at work today in terms of global steel scrap supply and demand are the result of a mix of factors unlike others we’ve seen before.”
One factor is that surging global crude steel production—which could total 950 million mt for 2003—has led to “significant tightening” in iron ore and coke supplies as well as higher prices for those materials, according to a report by John Neu, also of Hugo Neu Schnitzer Global Trade. Under such conditions, blast-furnace steelmakers “stretch” their liquid iron by charging more cold metallics such as ferrous scrap, pig iron, and DRI/HBI. If this stretching equates to only 1 percent of the 600 million mt of steel made by integrated producers, that would mean 6 million mt of additional demand for cold metallics.
Overall, Neu continued, demand for cold metallics could increase 8 million to 14 million mt a year, which would “challenge our industry’s ability to collect, process, transport, and finance the necessary tonnage.”
Other ferrous market factors include:
- Ocean freight rates are at record highs, with some bulk rates skyrocketing 300 percent in the past 12 months, Neu noted.
- The weakening of the U.S. dollar has prompted many euro- and yen-based exporters to increase their sales prices, putting even more upward pressure on scrap values, he said.
- Readily available scrap supplies have been reduced, so future demand growth must be met out of current arisings. In Philip’s view, scrap prices “will need to stay at current or higher levels to continue to incentivize the collection and processing of raw scrap supplies.”
In the coming months, Neu forecast that international and domestic scrap prices could increase significantly for several reasons:
Internationally, he noted, China isn’t the only nation experiencing significant growth in its steel sector. Other countries with double-digit growth include Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Finland, India, Iran, Mexico, Moldova, Peru, Serbia, Slovenia, Trinidad/Tobago, and Turkey.
In the United States, scrap supplies could decline in the winter, while rail-service problems could disrupt scrap deliveries to consumers. Also, the financial condition of some U.S. consumers has forced them to keep their scrap inventories low for fiscal year-end, which is “the worst possible time for buyers,” Neu said.
Export buyers, meanwhile, continue to compete aggressively for domestic scrap supplies. U.S. ferrous scrap exports in the first half of last year were about 18 percent higher than the same period in 2002, with forecasts expecting 2003 to be “the strongest year for U.S. steel scrap exports in a decade,” said Philip. Domestic mills, in fact, are “demonstrating a willingness to ‘buy scrap off the dock’ to retain sufficient scrap supplies,” he noted.
One final market factor is that steelmakers can’t easily resort to other cold metallics because additional pig iron and HBI supplies are expensive and not readily available, Philip said. Also, steelmakers can’t even import scrap because overseas scrap prices and freight rates have increased.
European Union. Steel production in the European Union in 2003 was expected to match the 2002 total of 158 million mt, according to a report by Anton van Genuchten of TSR GmbH & Co. KG (Duisburg, Germany) and Colin Iles of European Metal Recycling Ltd. (Warrington, England).
Scrap consumption in the EU has remained static at 85 million mt for the past three years, and “this is not expected to change in the foreseeable future,” the report noted. Notably, EU steelmakers are finding it difficult to source material, especially high grades, due to several factors.
In 2002, the EU became a net exporter of ferrous scrap for the first time, shipping 8.1 million mt compared with imports of 7.7 million mt. “This is significant and is a trend that is likely to continue as demand increases in other regions of the world, most notably in the Far East, faster than in the EU,” the report said.
Going forward, the main market factors will be demand, supply, currency exchange rates, and freight rates. “All currently appear more volatile than in recent times,” the report noted, “but it is difficult not to conclude that the underlying trend for scrap demand will be rising more than the available sources of supply.”
Asia/Pacific Rim. In this region, China has been the main reason for “the dramatic changes in market conditions and the increases in commodity prices across the board,” said Jeremy Sutcliffe of Sims Group Ltd. (Sydney, Australia). China’s steel production was expected to end 2003 at about 210 million mt—up from 181 million mt in 2002—while its imports of ferrous scrap could reach 8.5 million to 9 million mt.
In other Asian countries, Japan’s steel production was tracking to set a record at 110 million mt in 2003, Sutcliffe reported. This production growth—as well as the appreciation of the yen and solid domestic scrap prices—has reduced Japan’s exports of ferrous scrap, with its 2003 export total expected to be 4.3 million mt—10 percent lower than in 2002. As a result, some countries such as South Korea have had to buy more ferrous scrap from Western suppliers.
Steel production in South Korea and Taiwan was growing 2 and 4.5 percent, respectively, last year, with Taiwan exhibiting a stronger appetite for imported ferrous scrap, Sutcliffe said. Most Southeast Asian countries, meanwhile, were expected to post annual economic growth rates in excess of 4 percent in 2003, while Australia’s economy was growing about 3 percent for the year.
Despite some challenges posed by currency exchange rates and higher freight rates, “the fundamentals of our industry look well-underpinned for the near term,” Sutcliffe concluded.
Ferrous reports from other countries included the following:
India. Steel production was expected to end 2003 around 32 million mt—up from 28 million mt in 2002, said Ikbal Nathani of Nathani Group of Cos. (Mumbai). This production “spurt” has boosted India’s demand for all steelmaking raw materials and increased prices. In 2003, India was expected to import around 2 million mt of ferrous scrap—mostly shredded, with some HMS—from Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, Nathani said. High freight rates and limited availability of shredded scrap in Europe have forced Indian mills to pay high prices to secure material, with mid-October purchases for shredded around $220 a mt.
Russia. In the first nine months of 2003, ferrous scrap deliveries in Russia were about 16 million mt—20 percent higher than the same period last year and the highest level in nine years, said Denis Ilatovsky of MAIR (Moscow). Of that total, 10.4 million mt went to domestic consumers and 5.5 million mt was exported. For all of 2003, Russian ferrous scrap deliveries could total 22 million mt, which would represent a 20-percent increase from 2002, he noted.
Overall, the Russian scrap market became more regional in 2003 for several reasons, Ilatovsky said:
- Russian steelmakers could pay enough for scrap to prevent it from being shipped elsewhere;
- some large Russian producers began acquiring scrap processing operations to gain greater control of their feedstock; and
- tariffs on rail transportation increased 15 to 20 percent at the end of August, preventing scrap from moving economically.
Despite active lobbying by Russian steelmakers to increase scrap export duties, the duty decreased for bundles and remained the same for cut grades at 15 percent of the material’s value, Ilatovsky reported.
Ukraine. In the first eight months of 2003, ferrous scrap collections in Ukraine totaled about 4.8 million mt, down significantly from the 5.9 million mt collected in the same period in 2002, said Vadim Gurzhos of the Ukrainian Metal Scrap Association (Kiev). This decline marks an ongoing trend and is due, in large part, to the country’s duty on scrap exports of 30 euros a mt.
In 2004, Ukraine could decrease its scrap export duty from 30 to 18 euros, Gurzhos observed. If not, the decision could mean tough financial times for Ukrainian scrap exporters, fewer scrap collection companies, and lower scrap collection, he said.
Nonferrous: Higher Prices, Tighter Supplies
To kick off the nonferrous market reports, Nonferrous Division President Marc Natan of Malco SA (Le Pré Saint Gervais, France) offered a global overview of the main nonferrous metals:
- Aluminum. Despite some improvement in LME prices in 2003 and continuing strength in Chinese and Russian demand, aluminum has been hurt by weakness in the U.S. and European economies as well as oversupply problems, Natan said. China’s aluminum production, for instance, was expected to reach 5.1 million mt in 2003, making it a net exporter and “upsetting global supply and demand expectations.” Also, despite some smelter closures in the United States, aluminum stocks have continued to rise, he observed.
Aluminum’s supply issues have limited its price potential, with expectations pegging it at $1,430 a mt in both 2003 and 2004, Natan said. Overall, 2003 won’t end up as a good year for secondary aluminum smelters or scrap processors. Even so, aluminum’s long-term prospects remain positive. - Copper. The global copper market faced a “healthy deficit” in 2003, with demand exceeding supply by 277,000 mt in the first half of the year, Natan reported. Global demand has been picking up, most noticeably in China and the United States. Even with added copper smelting capacity, China can’t meet its internal demand, in part due to a shortage of copper concentrates. This supply-and-demand situation helped reduce LME warehouse stocks from 978,000 mt in May 2002 to around 574,000 mt last fall. Given these dynamics, Natan offered a price forecast of $1,800 a mt—“if producers don’t restart capacities and if the Chinese consumers remain insatiable.”
- Lead. Smelter closures were the main feature of the lead market in 2003 as historically low prices and tight concentrate supplies took their toll, Natan said, adding that lower prices also reduced the level of lead recycling.
Lead demand faltered due to weakness in the metal’s main end-use markets, with the notable exception of the global automotive market, Natan said. China, meanwhile, was a swing factor in the lead market, reducing its exports of primary metal to feed its growing domestic battery manufacturing sector.
In light of these market dynamics, lead could be priced at $550 a mt in 2004, Natan said. - Zinc. “The zinc market is finally—and slowly—embarking on a recovery,” Natan stated. Primary zinc supply was expected to remain relatively stable for the balance of 2003, with new mining operations and restarts of old facilities offsetting closures and cutbacks. Zinc supply remains dependent on China, however, with concerns that a reduction in its value-added tax late in 2003 could lead to increased exports.
Despite continuing weakness in some European economies, there’s the potential for a strong recovery—especially in the construction sector—which is creating optimism for zinc in the next couple of years, Natan said. Zinc, in fact, could be a strong performer in 2004, reaching $950 a mt. This price, however, will have little effect on the zinc scrap market, where offer and demand could be flat, he said.
United States. In the U.S. market, the good news has been the “much-awaited and long-overdue increase in base metal prices,” according to a report by Bob Stein of Alter Trading Corp. (Grand Rapids, Mich.). The bad news is that scrap supply is still tight, industrial production levels have yet to rise to a “satisfactory” level, and—at least through October—the U.S. economy was still weak.
In general, U.S. nonferrous scrap consumers are being conservative in their buying in response to factors such as dramatically higher scrap prices, stiff competition for material from overseas buyers, and the traditional end-of-year slowdown in production schedules, Stein noted.
Copper and brass scrap have seen good demand thanks to the “slightly better order books” at some mills, he said. Brass mills, meanwhile, have been actively pursuing scrap in the face of tight supplies. Ingotmakers, though, have found it hard to buy material since processors are increasingly exporting unprepared metal rather than upgrading it for domestic usage.
- aluminum, there was steady buying ahead of winter, with primary grades, UBCs, and shredder residue appreciating in price. Secondary smelters report business as “somewhat better,” though “there seems little excitement from that sector,” Stein reported.
In the export market, “buying at any price seems to be the norm,” with China establishing values for more and more U.S. nonferrous scrap and its buyers making “more than significant” penetration into the market, Stein said. While most Chinese buyers are responsible in their trading practices, “many are not, and there is a growing resentment in the United States among the consuming sector and nonferrous scrap processors that the strong buying on the part of many Chinese participants in the U.S. market is supported by smuggling, bribery, and other forms of corruption which are being ignored by the Chinese authorities,” he asserted. Fortunately, the Chinese government is addressing such problems, including the elimination of some “tax advantages currently being given to certain nonferrous consumers.”
In 2004, though the U.S. economy has traditionally improved in an election year, international trade “makes it far beyond the control of any one country to establish its own fate,” Stein said. Even so, he expects the first half of 2004 to be “good for the nonferrous markets in North America, although scrap availability will continue to be an issue.”
Asia/Pacific Rim. This region has seen an “overwhelming increase” in demand for all grades and particularly copper-based alloys, according to a report by Kumar Radhakrishnan of Sims Group Ltd. (Sydney, Australia). While China has been the primary driver for these increases, other markets have also shown “considerable resilience to the price increases,” he noted.
By material, the continuing tight supply of copper and brass scrap is a major concern in the region. Prices for some brass products, meanwhile, haven’t increased as much as the scrap prices due to an oversupply of finished product, Radhakrishnan said.
The aluminum market has been more subdued, with prices mostly steady but showing some recent improvement. Secondary aluminum prices in the region have increased from their recent low levels and demand has improved on the back of strong automobile sales in China and parts of Southeast Asia, Radhakrishnan reported.
On the economic front, while China and most of Southeast Asia are expected to have healthy GDP growth rates, South Korea and Taiwan are expected to grow only around 2 percent in 2004, he said.
United Kingdom. Nonferrous scrap supplies in the United Kingdom have been tight, especially for export grades, said Michael Oppenheimer of Mountstar Metal Corp. Ltd. (Biggleswade, England).
In the copper scrap market, demand has exceeded supply, leading to fierce competition among traders and consumers. “This situation shows no sign of changing as Chinese demand for all grades of copper scrap seems never-ending, with startling prices in relation to the LME,” Oppenheimer said.
Likewise, brass scrap has been in high demand, with interest from India and China for Honey “very good” and prices strengthening throughout the year, he reported. U.K. mills have also had a healthy demand for sorted grades.
In the lead market, U.K. mills have been paying considerable premiums to secure material. “This demand has been accompanied by an ever-increasing LME, resulting in some stunning percentage increases in scrap sales prices,” observed Oppenheimer. The problem is on the supply side, with greater scrap quantities hard to come by.
Though aluminum saw strong demand in the United Kingdom in the first half of 2003, domestic interest flagged in the summer, Oppenheimer said. As a result, various grades were sold away from the domestic market to the Far East and India.
The future will see an ever-increasing squeeze on scrap availability, with India and other Asian buyers (especially China) remaining important markets for U.K. exporters in 2004. With China’s demand for nonferrous metals projected to grow 20 percent this year, “we expect to see strengthening prices on the LME,” Oppenheimer noted.
European Union. European metals companies are facing “very difficult” market conditions, in part because “the forecasted upturn in the European economies has still not been felt,” said Hans-Peter Münster of VDM (Bonn, Germany).
The industry is hampered by other problems as well, including high production costs due to high labor and energy expenses; the increasingly complex collection of EU laws and regulations, which “threaten to suffocate companies” with bureaucracy; and excessive environmental laws, which put European metals firms at a disadvantage to non-EU companies.
On the scrap side, European secondary smelters are finding it difficult to source scrap due to competition from export buyers. Also, the strength of the euro is causing concern in Europe. “Since LME prices are referenced in U.S. dollars,” Münster explained, “physical traders in nonferrous metals in Europe were much less able to profit from the upward trend on the LME than traders in other parts of the world.”
A Stainless ‘Bloodbath’ Ahead?
Reviewing the major trends in the stainless steel market, Markus Moll of SMR GmbH (Reutte, Austria) asserted that the major challenge for stainless scrap processors in the future will be meeting the needs of the emerging “mega” stainless mills. These producers, which could have 2 million mt of melting capacity in one mill, will have an enormous appetite for scrap, especially blended charges that require greater sophistication from scrap suppliers.
Another notable trend is what Moll called “downstream supply-chain closure” in which mills buy downstream businesses like service centers, tube mills, exhaust manufacturers, and blank manufacturers. By controlling the supply chain, the mills also gain control of the scrap generated by these enterprises and can, thus, increase their internal scrap flows, Moll explained.
Other stainless trends include the following:
- Stainless producers will achieve higher and higher production efficiencies, which will reduce their revert scrap and, thus, increase their need for external scrap, Moll said.
- Consolidation will continue among stainless mills. The next major consolidation wave will be in North America, with two or three meltshops being shut down in the next two or three years, he said.
- The high price of nickel is spurring a shift away from austenitic stainless toward ferritic stainless. Currently, Moll noted, the stainless market is divided into 70 percent austenitic and 30 percent ferritic. In about five years, the balance could be 50/50 because “there are many applications where you don’t need austenitic,” he said.
- Ongoing increases in stainless production capacity will lead to a “bloodbath” in the industry in 2005 or 2006, Moll predicted.
Offering a quick look at recent conditions in the global stainless market, Stainless & Special Alloys Committee Chairman Sandro Giuliani of Giuliani Metalli SAS (Milan) noted that stainless steel production continues to grow, with China serving as the “real engine of this growth.” This strong production has increased demand for nickel, but supply limitations have led to high nickel prices. On the scrap side, attractive prices have made more scrap available, but this new supply hasn’t been great enough to increase the scrap ratio in stainless melts, he noted.
In the near term, the stainless market could see even higher nickel prices and, hence, greater pressure on stainless scrap, Giuliani said. In the longer term, high stainless steel prices may prompt some users to reduce their use of austenitic grades in favor of ferritic. European producers are already researching possible stainless steel alloys with a low nickel content using high carbon, chrome, and manganese combinations, he reported. Such research could bring about a structural change in the stainless industry and decrease nickel demand as well as nickel prices.
United States. Stainless scrap demand in the United States has been dominated by the ongoing production increases of North American Stainless in Ghent, Ky. “Their growing need for increased volumes of scrap has impacted historic domestic scrap flows, while overall dealer pricing structures remain strongly under the influence of the options of a few major wholesalers to export in bulk,” according to a report by Barry Hunter of Hunter-BenMet Associates L.L.C. (New York City). This greater competition in the U.S. stainless market is threatening the viability of some domestic producers.
U.S. exports of stainless scrap continue to be strong, Hunter noted. Through August, Taiwan was the primary destination, though South Korea significantly increased its purchases beginning in June. While China is buying more U.S. stainless scrap, it still represents basically “a dealer/trader-type market not yet truly reflective of any major consuming activities,” Hunter said, adding that this situation will “quickly change as the Chinese expand their melting capacities to further internal growth of stainless steel consumption through domestic supplies of finished product.”
Among European buyers, Finland has replaced Spain as the primary destination for U.S. stainless scrap, Hunter observed. Overall, U.S. stainless scrap exports could set a record in 2003, exceeding the previous level of 455,000 mt in 2000, he said.
This strong export demand is putting continued pressure on domestic scrap supplies and is affecting U.S. consumer and dealer pricing for scrap, perhaps prompting mills to rely more on primary nickel, Hunter said. With scrap expected to remain tight, consumers can only increase their access to scrap by diverting it from other buyers through price and logistics.
Eastern Europe. This region currently consumes about 640,000 mt a year of specialty steels (including stainless), reported Markus Moll. That demand is conservatively expected to grow about 9 percent a year to 1 million mt in 2007, he said.
Notably, imports of specialty steels by Eastern Europe and the C.I.S. have grown 30.5 percent a year since 1992 to more than 360,000 mt, with the C.I.S., Poland, and the Czech Republic each accounting for about 24 percent of that import demand. These imports “indicate that there’s really something going on in these countries, there’s really a growing demand for specialty steels,” Moll said.
Looking ahead, automotive production is expected to be strong in Eastern European countries, which is a good indicator of future demand for specialty steels, Moll said. Until Eastern European specialty steel producers can improve their competitiveness, the region will continue to source a major portion of its metal through imports.
Paper Looks to Asia
The predominant market report at the Paper Division meeting focused on Asia, which was appropriate given that region’s huge and growing influence on the world recovered fiber market.
Of the 150 million mt of global consumption of recovered fiber, for instance, Asian mills account for more than 50 million mt—and new capacity will increase this total in the future, said Ranjit Baxi of J&H Sales International Ltd. (London).
Asia’s imports of recovered fiber totaled about 14 million mt in 2002—double the 7 million mt imported in 1997, Baxi reported. Since 1997, China increased its imports from 1.6 million to 6.8 million mt, India tripled its imports from 400,000 to 1.2 million mt, Indonesia went from 1.4 million to 2 million mt, and Malaysia grew from 13,000 to over 250,000 mt. Not all Asian countries increased their imports—Taiwan, for instance, reduced its imports from 1.32 million to 1.04 million mt. Still, given China’s announced new mill capacity of 3 million to 3.5 million mt from 2004 to 2005, its imports of recovered fiber could reach 12 million mt by 2007, while India’s imports could touch 2.5 million mt by 2006, Baxi said.
Going forward, there’s a “greater need for improved global partnerships between exporting regions”—namely, Europe and the United States, Baxi said. Specifically, he called on BIR and ISRI’s Paper Stock Industries Chapter to communicate regularly on market developments, grade specifications, and the importance of quality requirements.
On the topic of quality, Baxi asserted that, “with increasing volumes being traded globally, we have to ensure that quality is not compromised.” Not only can the costs of rejected export shipments be high, but poor quality can have a long-term negative effect on export demand for certain grades, he said.
Several price-related issues also must be addressed, including the recent disconnect between recovered fiber prices and demand, Baxi said. Though demand has been increasing and scrap supplies have been tightening, prices have been stable or declining, he noted, admitting that he couldn’t understand this dynamic.
Exchange rates also pose a significant challenge in setting prices for exported recovered fiber. In particular, the recent weakening of the U.S. dollar against the euro creates problems for scrap traders who buy material in euros but sell on the international market in U.S. dollars. “This definitely affects our export pricing,” Baxi stated.
One final price factor is the significant rise in freight rates, he said.
United States. The U.S. market was stable in the third quarter with “fairly flat” prices that were about $10 to $15 over the historical averages, said Michael Moulton of WM Trading Inc. (Houston). Domestic producers of recycled newsprint and containerboard were operating at low capacity rates and would have liked to see scrap prices decrease. Export demand—particularly from Asian consumers—compensated for the diminished domestic demand, he noted.
The fate of U.S. recovered fiber in 2004 depends largely on the performance of the U.S. economy and any new capacity that comes online in Asia, said Moulton.
European Union. In Europe, the third quarter was “uniform” in that mill orders were adequate and stocks of recovered fiber were high, with subsequently lower demand, said Gerry West of Severnside Waste Paper Ltd. (Cardiff, Wales). In that same period, however, paper collection activity was lower, resulting in lower stocks at processors.
In September, an increase in demand for finished paper prompted some mills to increase their selling prices by 40 euros, West said, noting that “this was not universally achieved, though some mills succeeded in getting a 20-euro increase.” To justify that increase, mills volunteered to increase their buying prices for lower-quality scrap paper grades by 10 to 15 euros a mt.
Even with increased scrap collection, all recovered fiber is finding a home and processors still have low stocks, West reported. There was some concern, though, that mills would try to eliminate the 10-to-15-euro increase for low grades later in 2003 based on their fears of having adequate scrap stocks and poor order books after Christmas.
In the export market, many Far East mills are planning or starting up new capacity that will increase their need for recovered fiber, West said, noting that this fiber will have to come from the United States or Northern Europe. There’s even new capacity planned in Europe, which will increase domestic demand for scrap.
Despite the growing international competition for recovered fiber, European mills persist in thinking they can control their costs by arbitrarily changing their buying prices for fiber. “As a result,” West said, “some scrap merchants are dedicating a portion of their tonnage to the export market on a long-term basis.”
West also expressed sadness that European paper processors “still can’t sit down with our counterparts in the European paper mills and get some long-term strategy that will benefit them and ourselves. I don’t expect things to change in the near future, but I live in hopes.”
Rewards and Risks in China
Trading with China presents unprecedented opportunities for scrap processors, but it can also pose considerable risks—especially given the recent frantic buying spree by Chinese companies.
Speaking at the nonferrous division meeting, veteran scrap executive Michael Lion of Lion Consulting Inc./Sims Group Ltd. (Sydney, Australia) offered some words of caution—and perspective—to his fellow recyclers:
“I’ve been doing business in scrap in China since 1978, and I have never seen conditions that in any way compare to the current conditions,” Lion said. “Those of us who have been in the business a fair amount of time have seen these kinds of feeding frenzies and hysterical conditions before. The one point that is absolutely clear is night follows day. Somewhere down the line—when you get prices being paid that bear absolutely no relationship as they do in copper to LME or Comex values—is that there will be tears at bedtime, as they say. All we can hope to do is to try to minimize the extent to which we suffer in this respect. And I think that everybody is being pretty prudent and cautious in the business they do, not extending their sales too far out and being as selective as possible with those whom they do business.” •
Kent Kiser is publisher and editor-in-chief of Scrap.
All eyes were turned eastward—to Eastern Europe and the Far East—at BIR’s fall meeting, where speakers continued to stress China’s powerful influence on global scrap trade.