September/October 1993
Aluminum has made a dogged effort to replace copper in automotive radiators—winning big lately in North America —but copper is trying to engineer a comeback. The battle would seem certain to worry recyclers of copper/brass radiators, but demand for this scrap—and leaded alloys—appears set for change.
BY JEFF BORSECNIK
Jeff Borsecnik is assistant editor of Scrap Processing and Recycling.
Late last year, Chrysler Corp. became the last of Detroit 's "Big Three" automakers to finally switch from copper/brass to aluminum radiators in several major lines, representing another mile marker in aluminum's journey to replace copper in this market segment. It's been a fairly steady trip, with line after line of vehicles switching to aluminum radiators over the past few years. Even Nipponsdenso, the Japanese auto parts maker that was the last major radiator supplier in North America dedicated exclusively to copper/brass radiators, moved forward earlier this year with plans to produce aluminum units as well.
To aluminum, the shift means adding to its average per-vehicle use, which already grew from 78 pounds in 1972 to 191 pounds in 1991, according to the Aluminum Association (Washington, D.C.). Switching to an aluminum radiator places another 5 or 10 pounds into a vehicle's aluminum tally—which could really add up if aluminum captured the entire radiator market for the 40-million-plus vehicles produced annually worldwide.
For copper, the radiator shift is obviously a loss, but one that many note has been more than offset by the red metal's recent gains in automotive electrical applications. The most direct—albeit belated—domestic impact of the switch is likely to be on a particular segment of the copper industry: brass and bronze ingot makers, which favor scrap radiators as feedstock because they offer a relatively inexpensive, premixed source of the copper, tin, lead, and zinc called for in the alloys they produce. In fact, radiators are essentially, as one ingot maker executive puts it, "the base metal for plumbing alloys"—the faucets, pipes, and other plumbing fixtures that account for nearly half of the consumption of ingot makers' products. Thus, as copper/brass radiators fade, this group may stand to lose an important and relatively inexpensive source of scrap. Then again, depending on the outcome of efforts to eliminate the lead content in plumbing fixtures, ingot makers may be forced to abandon radiator scrap long before they disappear from the market.
Aluminum Surges
Aluminum has taken the lead on copper/brass in the domestic radiator market thanks to its use in a large and growing proportion of passenger cars, vans, and light trucks, according to Stuart Lyman, senior vice president of the Copper Development Association (CDA) (New York City). Copper/brass, he points out, still holds a narrow lead in commercial vehicle radiators. In fact, copper/brass has held onto most very demanding radiator applications, as well as the replacement market and vehicles produced in small runs. Nevertheless, manufacturers of large vehicles, such as class-8 trucks, are showing growing interest in aluminum radiators, says Robert J. Kazmier, transportation marketing manager for Reynolds Metals Co. (Richmond, Va.). By comparison, aluminum definitely dominates in Europe , where it holds about three-fourths of the overall market, while copper/brass owns a substantial, but decreasing, majority of the Japanese market.
Why has copper found itself losing out? Apparently, because of years of effort. Although aluminum's move in the U.S. radiator market might appear to be rather sudden, with most of the attention coming in recent years, the aluminum industry has aimed to win this segment since the 1950s, according to copper industry representatives. Copper appears to have been caught flat-footed.
An inexpensive, mechanically assembled radiator used in 1978 Volkswagens first proved aluminum fit for radiators. This lightweight, low-efficiency radiator quickly became popular in Europe 's small cars, but it was not up to the task of cooling large engines or vehicles equipped with a lot of energy-consuming features like air conditioning and power windows. Still, as manufacturers worked to cut the weight of cars in the late 1970s and 1980s, aluminum radiators were improved and a new, brazed-assembly version developed.
The door was then open for aluminum to move in on copper's radiator territory. Brazing, like the soldering technique traditionally used for copper/brass radiators, joins two metals using a filler, but employs precisely controlled amounts of a more refined alloy with a much higher melting temperature than solder, reportedly resulting in more-precise assembly. The soldered design of the copper/brass radiator, which can suffer leaks caused by the its weak joints and has been troubled by corrosion encouraged by the flux in lead solder, has been found wanting by comparison. "What was a virtue for copper—easy fabrication by soldering—becomes a problem when you have to compete with a really high-tech, precisely made brazed unit," says Lyman. And though a soldered design has traditionally meant easy repair, that benefit has faded under the weight of occupational safety concerns over lead solder.
Copper Slips Behind,Plots Comeback
Of course, other factors have also helped aluminum gain the automotive radiator market. William H. Dresher, vice president of technology for the International Copper Association (ICA) (New York City), notes, for example, that exaggerated concerns over copper prices in the 1970s aided aluminum's surge. And Reynolds's Kazmier attributes it to aluminum's light weight, though the ICA maintains that copper's weight disadvantage to aluminum is offset by its better heat-transfer properties, so copper/brass units can be as light as aluminum radiators with the same capability. "Aluminum has taken over for a lot of reasons," Dresher says, "most of which are wrong."
The copper industry hasn't taken it all lying down, though even those aligned to the red metal admit copper has been slow to counter aluminum's rise in the radiator market. "It's always difficult to defend a market—to spend money and keep what you've got—whereas if you spend to win a market, you actually get something back," Lyman reasons. Still, the ICA has been working for years to improve the competitiveness of copper/brass radiators. The key project is development of a brazing assembly method using the same equipment as is employed with aluminum radiators, an effort expected to be completed next year. Additional ventures include development of a lightweight zinc solder, already in commercial use; techniques using lasers to weld thin-gauge tubes, helping to cut the weight of copper/brass radiators; and new coatings designed to reduce external corrosion.
Will these efforts pay off? Lyman suggests that the new generation of brazed copper/brass radiators will be in a position to leapfrog ahead. On the other hand, Patricia Foley, vice president of CRU North America (Summit, N.J.), a consulting firm that has followed the copper/aluminum radiator battle, predicts aluminum will continue to be the "main product" in the domestic automotive radiator market, with copper/brass retaining specialty applications and the aftermarket. "I think the engineers have decided in favor of aluminum," she explains. Given the large investment many radiator makers have made so they could make the switch to aluminum, she adds, "it would be hard for copper to regain its lost market share." CDA officials, however, say that switching to a new brazed copper/brass radiator would not require a similar investment.
In any case, Kazmier points out, Reynolds and other aluminum makers aren't resting now that they've taken the lead in this radiator contest. The aluminum industry is continuing its own radiator development efforts, he says, realizing the auto industry is always ready to switch to a better product "in a heartbeat."
Fewer Cu Radiators
Regardless of whether copper recovers lost turf in the radiator market, there is certain to be a drop in the availability of scrap copper/brass from radiators because of both aluminum's current role and cuts in the weight of competing copper/brass units.
Are the ingot makers that consume radiators worried? "I'm not really worried, but I know people who are concerned," says Albert Wynne, vice president of National Metals Inc. ( Leeds , Ala. ). He points out that it will "be a lot of years" before the supply is cut dramatically, given the longer life spans of cars today and the fact that the replacement radiator market still belongs solidly to copper/brass. But another ingot maker executive, Pat Boyle, director of purchasing for H. Kramer and Co. (Chicago), says that, while the reasons are hard to pin down, copper/brass radiators are already "the tightest I've seen in 21 years." Rik Kohn, vice president of Federal Metal Co. (New Bedford, Ohio), agrees there is "clearly a shortage of radiators today," but no more so than of supplies of all brass scrap, as less is generated and products are built to last longer. Detailed figures that would settle the debate are hard to come by, but Bureau of Mines figures show consumption of scrap copper/brass radiators by ingot makers, smelters and refiners combined has dropped over the past several years, from nearly 97,000 metric tons (mt) in 1988 to just more than 70,000 mt last year.
In coming years, various observers suggest, the copper/brass radiator supply will likely diminish slowly, eventually affecting demand for other scrap, such as No. 2 copper, as the ingot makers look to new sources for the metal units they seek. "When our cheaper [radiator] material is no longer available, our costs will go up and we will have to compete for more expensive forms of scrap," says Wynne, mentioning "rod turnings and such—items brass mills have been able to monopolize in the past because they have been able to pay more." James Grodin, vice president of River Smelting & Refining Co. (Cleveland), says obsolete red brass scrap and light copper grades also may see greater demand as radiator scrap supply fades.
Lead Embattled
In the end, concern about the potential effects of declining quantities of copper/brass radiators could be a moot point. There's a big question mark about future demand for the alloys ingot makers have traditionally produced because of worries about lead. Congress, environmentalists, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), plumbing-fixture manufacturers, and a growing host of others are arguing about lead's environmental and human health headaches, with many pushing for bans on lead use. Thus, a declining supply of lead-soldered copper/brass radiators "might work to ingot makers' advantage in the long run as leaded alloys become less popular," says Michael Rothschild, president of Kearny Smelting and Refining Corp. (Kearny, N.J.).
A current focus of the lead debate is on drinking water. A recent EPA study found that more than 800 public water supplies across the country have what the agency consider unsafe lead levels. And, more to the point as far as ingot makers are concerned, California 's attorney general has filed a suit alongside the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Environmental Law Foundation charging that faucets made by 14 major manufacturers and sold in California release lead into water in levels that easily violate the state's toxic control law, Proposition 65. Proponents of the suit want the faucet makers to warn consumers of risks and eventually get the lead out of their products. The manufacturers contend that most of the lead in drinking water comes from other parts of the water supply system and that risks of lead exposure from faucets can be avoided by simply allowing tap water to run briefly when it has been standing for several hours before drinking or cooking with it. The case—just one of many battle fronts for lead these days—clearly has major implications for the ingot makers who supply these manufacturers.
Lead concerns could have additional implications for ingot makers, says Wynne. "It might be that before brass radiators are phased out from competition with aluminum that we may not be able to melt auto radiators because of OSHA requirements and clean air rules covering smelters and foundries," he predicts.
Lead Leads; What Follows?
Should lead lose its place in plumbing alloys, chances are there will be lead-free or low-lead replacement alloys ready to take over, as various players in the industry are already developing such alloys. Federal Metals Co., for example, recently developed a new alloy for plumbing castings called Federalloy, which contains less than 0.1 percent lead but is said to offer favorable machinability, castability, solderability, strength, and corrosion-resistance. Federalloy is "going to eliminate the need for radiators in development of faucets," declares Kohn.
Such potential solutions carry their own unanswered questions, particularly when it comes to bismuth, which is being used in many of the new alloys under development, including Federalloy. Though bolstered by its reputation as a "green" metal, "bismuth is both good and bad," says Allan Silber, president of N. Kamenske and Co. Inc. (Nashua, N.H.) and of the Brass and Bronze Ingot Manufacturers (Chicago) as well as chairman of a coalition called the Recyclers of Copper Alloy Products. He says the metal is "much tougher to work with than lead," and some new experimental alloys with bismuth have been troubled by brittleness.
Bismuth, with annual production at only around 4,000 mt, is also simply not available in large enough volumes to replace lead in major uses. Federal's new alloy contains less than 1 percent bismuth, which the company says won't put burdensome demands on the bismuth market, but the effect of widespread use of alloys with even relatively low bismuth concentrations on that metal's availability may be a cause for concern. Though substantial reserves of bismuth exist, these resources are tied to production of other metals, especially—and ironically—lead. Stephen M. Jasinski, a mineral commodity specialist with the Bureau of Mines who tracks bismuth, says annual production of the metal is unlikely to expand beyond about 8,000 mt in the foreseeable future, making the metal an unlikely substitute for lead except in specialty uses. (For more on bismuth, see "The ABCs of Minor Metals" in the September/October 1992 issue.)
On top of these concerns, bismuth prices have been historically volatile, rising temporarily to more than $20 per pound as new uses developed in the 1970s and moving erratically since, falling last year to around $2.50. What would be the effect of new demand on the metal? Who knows? says Wynne. If you asked metal experts what the effects would be if demand for even a common metal like copper increased 20, 30, or 40 percent, he notes, "I don't think anyone could say what the price would be. ... It might not even be available at $10 a pound." Replacement alloys are expected to be expensive in any case.
Alloy makers are also waiting to get a regulatory green light on bismuth before investing in alloys using it, especially for plumbing-related applications. "There's a lot of interested parties—OSHA, the EPA, water works people, environmental groups—and all have to be satisfied bismuth is safe in humans and the environment," says Wynne. "And it's been such a rarity, it hasn't got much of a history." Silber says the industry has put the onus on the EPA for a toxicological profile of bismuth, and the agency is studying the issue.
Even if bismuth and other metals that might substitute for lead in copper alloys are given an environmental thumbs-up, Silber believes it could take industry at least five years to completely convert to substitute alloys, and other ingot makers agree no sudden change is likely. In addition to production-related changes, the performance of new alloys would have to be tested over long periods. "Just because something works on a trial in a foundry—you pour it and machine it—you don't know whether on a day-to-day basis these alloys can be substitutes," says Wynne. In fact, Silber notes, some experts fear disintegration problems in alloys using bismuth—potentially quite a problem for valves or other parts with long duty lives. Nevertheless, a watershed change appears inevitable, with lead almost certain to be eclipsed in major areas. As Boyle puts it, "This is 1993 and `lead' is just too bad a word."
Scrap Supply Changes
If lead leaves major alloys, brass and bronze ingot makers as well as their scrap suppliers may face some new challenges. For instance, Wynne suggests, if castings currently made with leaded alloys are replaced with unleaded alloys that look the same, "it's going to be a real job to say what's got lead in it and what doesn't." Furthermore, no one has yet determined the effect of bismuth on other alloys it's not intended for, notes Silber. Some may be able to tolerate a certain amount of bismuth, but others, such as engineering alloys, are unlikely to be able to handle any, he says.
Then there's the question of whether there will be enough low-lead scrap around for ingot makers to use as substitute feedstock. "Our guesstimate is there is not enough no-lead or low-lead scrap," warns Silber, noting that "there will be a need for more copper." Michael R. Mann, vice president of Colonial Metals Co. (Columbia, Pa.), adds, "I would hope we won't have to substitute with primary metals, and we probably won't."
A shift away from leaded plumping alloys would also probably lower the eventual scrap value of whatever copper/brass radiators are still around. "The only thing you can do with a radiator today is make a leaded alloy," says Rothschild. "There's no easy way of removing the lead." Though ingot makers are working on this potential problem, until it's resolved, radiators unwanted by the ingot makers would probably become more attractive to refiners and others that today are generally outbid by the ingot makers for the scrap, says Silber.
Looking at the bigger picture, if lead becomes so restricted that radiators become unattractive at any price, Wynne says, they could end up a bigger environmental problem than the lead poses today. He points out the radiators have "maximum surface area for their weight and consequently maximum exposure to leaching. ... If they get discarded in a ditch or a landfill, the lead could enter the groundwater, and you could end up with a much worse situation in an effort to reduce lead in drinking water." There aren't any easy answers to lead problems any more, he adds. "The easy solutions are already in place. It's like the disposal diaper vs. the washable diaper thing, each has it own problems; you solve one, you create another." •
Aluminum has made a dogged effort to replace copper in automotive radiators—winning big lately in North America —but copper is trying to engineer a comeback. The battle would seem certain to worry recyclers of copper/brass radiators, but demand for this scrap—and leaded alloys—appears set for change.