Raising Paper Recycling Rates

What Role Does Legislation Play?

As industry and governments work to reduce the amount of scrap paper entering the waste stream through recycling, many wonder if laws mandating specific goals--especially those governing old newspapers--are the path to take.

Looking closer at the projected 40-percent recovery rate, Franklin Associates, Prairie Village, Kansas--an independent consulting firm commissioned by API--has concluded that the following recovery rates, by major grade, are needed in order to meet the overall 40-percent objective by 1995:

Old newspapers (ONP)--52 percent, up from 35 percent in 1988;

Old corrugated containers--66 percent, up from 52 percent in 1988;

High-grade deinking paper--50 percent, up from 37 percent in 1988;

Mixed paper--20 percent, up from 13 percent in 1988; and

Pulp substitutes--remain at 100 percent.

In the face of the reported glut of ONP in the United States, many in the private sector are now wondering whether such rates are obtainable--especially for ONP--unless mandated by laws. Whether laws are the answer or not, scrap paper packers and consumers will need new long-term strategic planning to achieve the goal. At the very least there must be a rapid increase in paper recycling capacity. API is currently figuring on a multibillion-dollar investment program entailing expansion of secondary fiber usage in at least 37 facilities--including the construction of eight new paper mills. This new capacity would be added to the more dm 500 U.S. paper mills that API believes are already engaged in varying degrees of scrap paper recycling.

Prompting API's call for a national recycling goal is the enormous amount of paper that now enters the solid waste stream. It's estimated that of the approximately 160 million tons of municipal solid waste (MSW) generated annually in the United States, paper and paperboard constitute more than 60 million tons--approximately 40 percent of the total weight. However, ONP, one of the largest paper components, was landfilled last year at an estimated rate of 8.9 million tons--valued by the Environmental Protection Agency at $255 million.

Balancing Goals and Markets

Increasing scrap paper recycling rates is certainly not a new concept, nor is the idea of setting specific goals or targets as a means to help stimulate market enhancement and market development. In fact, in June 1988, guidelines for federal procurement of paper and paper products containing recovered materials were detailed by EPA. The guidelines included recommendations on a "minimum percentage of waste paper," which refers to specified postconsumer and other recovered materials, as well as "minimum percentages of postconsumer recovered materials" and a "minimum percentage of recovered materials." EPA set the minimum percentage of recovered postconsumer materials in newsprint at 40 percent.

Before taking a closer look at how best to accomplish greater consumption of ONP, a few marketing facts ought to be highlighted. Note, for example, that in the United States there are approximately 25 newsprint mills producing approximately 6 million tons of newsprint annually and less than 10 mills currently use ONP and/or magazines as a fiber source. Various sources put ONP usage by newsprint manufacturers at 1.4 million tons, for a domestic recycling rate of nearly 25 percent. However, one also must include Canada, where there are 48 newsprint mills but only one producing recycled newsprint. Significantly, the United States imports around 70 percent of Canada's total output of newsprint; thus, of the more than 13.5 million tons of newsprint actually used in the United States last year, just 10 percent of the tonnage represented recycled fiber. Furthermore, overall U.S. and Canadian production of newsprint totaled approximately 17 million tons in 1988 and consumed 1.5 millions tons of ONP, for an estimated North American recycling rate of only 9 percent.

Other domestic markets exist for recovered ONP. These include animal bedding, insulation, grass mulch, and other paper and paperboard products. However, at present, these markets are not large and there appears to be ample supplies of other grades of scrap paper to meet any new demand. The key to increasing ONP recovery, therefore, is to encourage increased consumption of ONP by U.S. newsprint mills.

Governments Embracing Reduction and Recycling

Given that many government officials are opposed to siting new landfills and incinerators to handle MSW, greater priority has been placed on source reduction and recycling. As pointed out by Davis Recycling Consultants, Flagstaff, Arizona, in order to achieve greater source reduction awareness, taxation of newspaper, in particular, and packaging, in general, is being considered by legislators. According to the firm's April report, "North American Recycled Newsprint Markets," the federal government and at least 20 states (including numerous municipalities) have enacted, or have pending, legislation that would:

Tax newsprint to fund disposal programs;

Tax virgin newsprint;

Require newsprint to contain a certain amount of recycled fiber;

Require publishers and printers to buy a specific percentage of newsprint containing recycled fiber;

Require households, through voluntary and mandatory curbside programs, to participate.

The study pointed out that such supply-driven legislation is rapidly moving toward requirements for newsprint producers to use 40-percent-recycled content m half of their North American sales.

Recent Legislative Initiatives

What follows is a list of recent proposed federal legislation compiled by the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (ISRI).

Newsprint Recycling Incentives Act. All newsprint producers and importers would be required to recycle their newsprint, beginning at a 10-percent level and increasing by 2 percent a year to a cap of 30 percent. EPA would oversee a trading scheme that would allow those that use more than their quota of recycled newsprint to sell "credits" to those that do not meet the standard.

HR 3737. Excise taxes would be imposed on the use of virgin materials in the manufacture and production of any taxable product, including newsprint.

HR 1810. Minimum recycled content standards would be set for paper and paper products.

ISRI also has compiled a list of recently passed laws at the state level.

California AB 1305. Commercial consumption of recycled newsprint containing at least 40 percent postconsumer paper must reach 25 percent by January 1, 1991, going to 50 percent by 2000. If a newspaper consumer is unable to obtain recycled content newsprint for specified reasons, the bill would require certification to that fact, and also would require suppliers of newsprint to certify the amounts of recycled-content newsprint in shipments to a newsprint consumer. Under the legislation, recycled content newsprint means newsprint in which not less than 40 percent of its fiber consists of postconsumer scrap paper.

Connecticut HB 6641. This law requires all newspapers distributed in the state with circulations greater than 40,000 to increase their use of recycled newsprint, starting with 20 percent in 1993 and going to 90 percent by 1998.

District of Columbia 7-226. Beginning in late 1990, homes and offices, including the District government, have been required to separate for collection and to provide for the recycling of all paper and newspaper products. in addition, preference must be given to recycled paper and recycled paper products, unless the price of the paper and paper products is not competitive for the purposes intended. Under the law, the term I 'competitive" means a price within 10 percent of the price of items that are manufactured or produced from virgin paper products.

Florida SB 1192. In Section 71 of this law, a 10-cent per ton waste newsprint disposal fee is imposed upon every producer or publisher within the state after January 1, 1989. This fee will be collected from producers and publishers based on the total weight of newsprint actually consumed in their publications; a credit of 10 cents per ton may be taken by producers and publishers for overruns or similar products not actually circulated or delivered, as well as against the fee obligation for each ton of recycled newsprint used in publication of products.

If the state Department of Environmental Regulation determines on October 1, 1992, by a preponderance of evidence that newsprint sold within the state is being recycled at a rate of 50 percent or more of the quantity sold within the state, the product waste disposal fee on newsprint will be rescinded. If the department determines on that date that newsprint sold within the state is being recycled at a rate of less than 50 percent of the quantity sold within the state, the product waste disposal fee on newsprint will be increased to 50 cents per ton and the previously referenced credits will be increased to 50 cents per ton.

The producer or publisher may claim a credit of 25 cents per ton of newsprint used in publications that have been collected for recycling.

Iowa HF 753. The state Environmental Protection Commission must recommend deposits, rebates, and waste abatement fees on elements of the waste stream--including ONP--when necessary to encourage waste reduction and recycling. The commission may not recommend a deposit, rebate, or fee on an element that is being properly managed through a market-driven of publicly supported recycling, recovery, or source-separation program. In addition, there can be a recommendation to remove fees on any waste stream element that is recycled, recovered, or properly managed.

Louisiana HB 1199. Under this law, the state Division of Administration must develop rules to allow up to a 5-percent differential in price for the purchase of products with recycled content, provided that such products are either manufactured in Louisiana or contain recovered materials diverted or removed from the solid waste stream that would otherwise go into a Louisiana landfill. In addition, the division must establish goals for minimum uses by the state for paper and paper products containing recycled content. A goal of an increase in the total state procurement will be established and will be increased 5 percent annually, until a minimum goal of 25 percent of total purchases is reached.

Maine HP 1025/LD 1431. The state Office of Waste Reduction and Recycling must initiate an incentive program to encourage end users of recycled materials to locate or expand their operations in the state. Under this law, the state also must direct marketing and brokering services for materials included in the state marketing plan when municipal and regional efforts to market these materials and the information clearinghouse are inadequate.

In addition, operations employing 15 or more people must implement an office and corrugated cardboard recycling program, beginning July 1, 1991, under the new law.

New Jersey PL 1987. Not less than 10 percent of the dollar amount of paper and paper products purchased by the state after July 1, 1987, must be made from recycled paper under this legislation; this amount increased to 30 percent by July 1, 1988, and to 45 percent by July 1, 1989. Priority purchasing must be given to products with the highest postconsumer material content. Furthermore, recycled paper or paper products receive up to a 10-percent price differential over virgin paper or paper products.

Pennsylvania SB 528. At least 40 percent of the secondary scrap paper used in recycled newsprint must be postconsumer newspaper.

Washington HB 1671. This law requires the state Office of Waste Reduction to conduct a study of the current use of, and potential capacity for, use of recycled paper as feedstock to the state’s pulp and paper industry. The list reveals that mandated fiber content proposals are very popular; however, as critics point out, merely imposing arbitrary percentage targets for recovery of ONP, plus arbitrary timetables, will not create additional demand for ONP. On the other hand, some believe that setting a minimum overall recycled content could be helpful in encouraging paper mills to invest in new capacity to consume scrap paper.

Not all of these legislative acts have been greeted with enthusiasm. An editorial that appeared in the March 26, 1990, Baltimore Sun took strong exception to legislation mandating the use of recycled newsprint in Maryland. The bill's sponsors set up a rigid timetable for achieving recycling, with stiff penalties for those that failed. The newspaper's response was that the bill "ignored technical and economic limitations that could make the measure unworkable. " In short, the newspaper stated, there isn't enough recycled newsprint currently available to meet the demand.

Meeting ONP Recycling Goals

Exactly how papermakers will ultimately comply with the spirit, if not the letter, of potential legislation is subject to ongoing debate. Ironically, in certain cases, the outcome could mean less ONP being recycled than originally assumed.

Steven L. Levetan, president of Resource Services, Atlanta, points out that higher recycling rates ultimately may not be achieved when legislators take certain goal-setting directions. For example, he says, legislation that would force newsprint mills to consume a certain percentage of recycled fiber for a certain percentage of the newsprint manufactured could have a very different effect from, say, legislation that simply requires a publisher's total annual consumption of newsprint to contain a certain percentage of recycled fiber.

To illustrate the point, Levetan contrasts two hypothetical states: one that requires a publisher to use 25 percent "recycled newsprint," which contains 4.0-percent recycled fiber, and another that requires a publisher's total newsprint consumption to contain a total of 25 percent recycled fiber.

In the first state, to satisfy the requirement, a publisher consuming a total of 100,000 tons per year of newsprint could purchase 25,000 tons of 40-percent recycled content newsprint, thereby creating a market for 10,000 tons of ONP (25 percent of 40 percent). In the second state, a publisher consuming 100,000 tons could satisfy the requirement by purchasing any combination of newsprint, such that in total 25 percent of the fiber contained was recycled fiber--resulting in 25,000 tons of ONP being diverted from disposal. The second state would provide a market for 2.5 times as much ONP, while providing both publishers and mills the most flexibility in meeting the goal. Since recycled newsprint mills today use anywhere from 40-percent to 100-percent ONP as feedstock, in the case of the first state, Levetan believes, there would be no incentive for a null to use 100-percent recycled furnish. Economic considerations do not necessarily favor the use of scrap paper-especially ONP--compared with virgin pulp sources, particularly in areas of the country with abundant and cheap pulp wood supplies. As a result, a newsprint manufacturer heretofore using 100-percent ONP might end up with an economic incentive (unintended by the legislation) to actually reduce its total scrap paper intake. This would still satisfy mandated goals since more recycled newsprint might be produced; however, less demand would be created for ONP.

Looking Ahead

Trying to guess how domestic newsprint producers intend to meet the challenge of increased ONP usage is an impossible task. Davis Recycling Consultants has looked at three possible scenarios: converting existing newsprint capacity to 40 percent recycled content; building new 100-percent recycled mills; and combining the first two. By Davis's calculations--assuming that half of the U.S. newsprint requirement contains a minimum 40-percent recycled content--an additional 2.5 million tons of recycled newsprint capacity would be required.

Another forecast, prepared by the National Solid Wastes Management Association, calculates that by 1995, 3.8 million tons of ONP will be used in the manufacture of newsprint: That's more than double the amount used in 1988. The association sees the total amount of ONP recovered rising to 7.5 million short tons by 1995, an increase of 67 percent over seven years.

What Role Does Legislation Play?

As industry and governments work to reduce the amount of scrap paper entering the waste stream through recycling, many wonder if laws mandating specific goals--especially those governing old newspapers--are the path to take.

Looking closer at the projected 40-percent recovery rate, Franklin Associates, Prairie Village, Kansas--an independent consulting firm commissioned by API--has concluded that the following recovery rates, by major grade, are needed in order to meet the overall 40-percent objective by 1995:

Old newspapers (ONP)--52 percent, up from 35 percent in 1988;

Old corrugated containers--66 percent, up from 52 percent in 1988;

High-grade deinking paper--50 percent, up from 37 percent in 1988;

Mixed paper--20 percent, up from 13 percent in 1988; and

Pulp substitutes--remain at 100 percent.

In the face of the reported glut of ONP in the United States, many in the private sector are now wondering whether such rates are obtainable--especially for ONP--unless mandated by laws. Whether laws are the answer or not, scrap paper packers and consumers will need new long-term strategic planning to achieve the goal. At the very least there must be a rapid increase in paper recycling capacity. API is currently figuring on a multibillion-dollar investment program entailing expansion of secondary fiber usage in at least 37 facilities--including the construction of eight new paper mills. This new capacity would be added to the more dm 500 U.S. paper mills that API believes are already engaged in varying degrees of scrap paper recycling.

Prompting API's call for a national recycling goal is the enormous amount of paper that now enters the solid waste stream. It's estimated that of the approximately 160 million tons of municipal solid waste (MSW) generated annually in the United States, paper and paperboard constitute more than 60 million tons--approximately 40 percent of the total weight. However, ONP, one of the largest paper components, was landfilled last year at an estimated rate of 8.9 million tons--valued by the Environmental Protection Agency at $255 million.

Balancing Goals and Markets

Increasing scrap paper recycling rates is certainly not a new concept, nor is the idea of setting specific goals or targets as a means to help stimulate market enhancement and market development. In fact, in June 1988, guidelines for federal procurement of paper and paper products containing recovered materials were detailed by EPA. The guidelines included recommendations on a "minimum percentage of waste paper," which refers to specified postconsumer and other recovered materials, as well as "minimum percentages of postconsumer recovered materials" and a "minimum percentage of recovered materials." EPA set the minimum percentage of recovered postconsumer materials in newsprint at 40 percent.

Before taking a closer look at how best to accomplish greater consumption of ONP, a few marketing facts ought to be highlighted. Note, for example, that in the United States there are approximately 25 newsprint mills producing approximately 6 million tons of newsprint annually and less than 10 mills currently use ONP and/or magazines as a fiber source. Various sources put ONP usage by newsprint manufacturers at 1.4 million tons, for a domestic recycling rate of nearly 25 percent. However, one also must include Canada, where there are 48 newsprint mills but only one producing recycled newsprint. Significantly, the United States imports around 70 percent of Canada's total output of newsprint; thus, of the more than 13.5 million tons of newsprint actually used in the United States last year, just 10 percent of the tonnage represented recycled fiber. Furthermore, overall U.S. and Canadian production of newsprint totaled approximately 17 million tons in 1988 and consumed 1.5 millions tons of ONP, for an estimated North American recycling rate of only 9 percent.

Other domestic markets exist for recovered ONP. These include animal bedding, insulation, grass mulch, and other paper and paperboard products. However, at present, these markets are not large and there appears to be ample supplies of other grades of scrap paper to meet any new demand. The key to increasing ONP recovery, therefore, is to encourage increased consumption of ONP by U.S. newsprint mills.

Governments Embracing Reduction and Recycling

Given that many government officials are opposed to siting new landfills and incinerators to handle MSW, greater priority has been placed on source reduction and recycling. As pointed out by Davis Recycling Consultants, Flagstaff, Arizona, in order to achieve greater source reduction awareness, taxation of newspaper, in particular, and packaging, in general, is being considered by legislators. According to the firm's April report, "North American Recycled Newsprint Markets," the federal government and at least 20 states (including numerous municipalities) have enacted, or have pending, legislation that would:

Tax newsprint to fund disposal programs;

Tax virgin newsprint;

Require newsprint to contain a certain amount of recycled fiber;

Require publishers and printers to buy a specific percentage of newsprint containing recycled fiber;

Require households, through voluntary and mandatory curbside programs, to participate.

The study pointed out that such supply-driven legislation is rapidly moving toward requirements for newsprint producers to use 40-percent-recycled content m half of their North American sales.

Recent Legislative Initiatives

What follows is a list of recent proposed federal legislation compiled by the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (ISRI).

Newsprint Recycling Incentives Act. All newsprint producers and importers would be required to recycle their newsprint, beginning at a 10-percent level and increasing by 2 percent a year to a cap of 30 percent. EPA would oversee a trading scheme that would allow those that use more than their quota of recycled newsprint to sell "credits" to those that do not meet the standard.

HR 3737. Excise taxes would be imposed on the use of virgin materials in the manufacture and production of any taxable product, including newsprint.

HR 1810. Minimum recycled content standards would be set for paper and paper products.

ISRI also has compiled a list of recently passed laws at the state level.

California AB 1305. Commercial consumption of recycled newsprint containing at least 40 percent postconsumer paper must reach 25 percent by January 1, 1991, going to 50 percent by 2000. If a newspaper consumer is unable to obtain recycled content newsprint for specified reasons, the bill would require certification to that fact, and also would require suppliers of newsprint to certify the amounts of recycled-content newsprint in shipments to a newsprint consumer. Under the legislation, recycled content newsprint means newsprint in which not less than 40 percent of its fiber consists of postconsumer scrap paper.

Connecticut HB 6641. This law requires all newspapers distributed in the state with circulations greater than 40,000 to increase their use of recycled newsprint, starting with 20 percent in 1993 and going to 90 percent by 1998.

District of Columbia 7-226. Beginning in late 1990, homes and offices, including the District government, have been required to separate for collection and to provide for the recycling of all paper and newspaper products. in addition, preference must be given to recycled paper and recycled paper products, unless the price of the paper and paper products is not competitive for the purposes intended. Under the law, the term I 'competitive" means a price within 10 percent of the price of items that are manufactured or produced from virgin paper products.

Florida SB 1192. In Section 71 of this law, a 10-cent per ton waste newsprint disposal fee is imposed upon every producer or publisher within the state after January 1, 1989. This fee will be collected from producers and publishers based on the total weight of newsprint actually consumed in their publications; a credit of 10 cents per ton may be taken by producers and publishers for overruns or similar products not actually circulated or delivered, as well as against the fee obligation for each ton of recycled newsprint used in publication of products.

If the state Department of Environmental Regulation determines on October 1, 1992, by a preponderance of evidence that newsprint sold within the state is being recycled at a rate of 50 percent or more of the quantity sold within the state, the product waste disposal fee on newsprint will be rescinded. If the department determines on that date that newsprint sold within the state is being recycled at a rate of less than 50 percent of the quantity sold within the state, the product waste disposal fee on newsprint will be increased to 50 cents per ton and the previously referenced credits will be increased to 50 cents per ton.

The producer or publisher may claim a credit of 25 cents per ton of newsprint used in publications that have been collected for recycling.

Iowa HF 753. The state Environmental Protection Commission must recommend deposits, rebates, and waste abatement fees on elements of the waste stream--including ONP--when necessary to encourage waste reduction and recycling. The commission may not recommend a deposit, rebate, or fee on an element that is being properly managed through a market-driven of publicly supported recycling, recovery, or source-separation program. In addition, there can be a recommendation to remove fees on any waste stream element that is recycled, recovered, or properly managed.

Louisiana HB 1199. Under this law, the state Division of Administration must develop rules to allow up to a 5-percent differential in price for the purchase of products with recycled content, provided that such products are either manufactured in Louisiana or contain recovered materials diverted or removed from the solid waste stream that would otherwise go into a Louisiana landfill. In addition, the division must establish goals for minimum uses by the state for paper and paper products containing recycled content. A goal of an increase in the total state procurement will be established and will be increased 5 percent annually, until a minimum goal of 25 percent of total purchases is reached.

Maine HP 1025/LD 1431. The state Office of Waste Reduction and Recycling must initiate an incentive program to encourage end users of recycled materials to locate or expand their operations in the state. Under this law, the state also must direct marketing and brokering services for materials included in the state marketing plan when municipal and regional efforts to market these materials and the information clearinghouse are inadequate.

In addition, operations employing 15 or more people must implement an office and corrugated cardboard recycling program, beginning July 1, 1991, under the new law.

New Jersey PL 1987. Not less than 10 percent of the dollar amount of paper and paper products purchased by the state after July 1, 1987, must be made from recycled paper under this legislation; this amount increased to 30 percent by July 1, 1988, and to 45 percent by July 1, 1989. Priority purchasing must be given to products with the highest postconsumer material content. Furthermore, recycled paper or paper products receive up to a 10-percent price differential over virgin paper or paper products.

Pennsylvania SB 528. At least 40 percent of the secondary scrap paper used in recycled newsprint must be postconsumer newspaper.

Washington HB 1671. This law requires the state Office of Waste Reduction to conduct a study of the current use of, and potential capacity for, use of recycled paper as feedstock to the state’s pulp and paper industry. The list reveals that mandated fiber content proposals are very popular; however, as critics point out, merely imposing arbitrary percentage targets for recovery of ONP, plus arbitrary timetables, will not create additional demand for ONP. On the other hand, some believe that setting a minimum overall recycled content could be helpful in encouraging paper mills to invest in new capacity to consume scrap paper.

Not all of these legislative acts have been greeted with enthusiasm. An editorial that appeared in the March 26, 1990, Baltimore Sun took strong exception to legislation mandating the use of recycled newsprint in Maryland. The bill's sponsors set up a rigid timetable for achieving recycling, with stiff penalties for those that failed. The newspaper's response was that the bill "ignored technical and economic limitations that could make the measure unworkable. " In short, the newspaper stated, there isn't enough recycled newsprint currently available to meet the demand.

Meeting ONP Recycling Goals

Exactly how papermakers will ultimately comply with the spirit, if not the letter, of potential legislation is subject to ongoing debate. Ironically, in certain cases, the outcome could mean less ONP being recycled than originally assumed.

Steven L. Levetan, president of Resource Services, Atlanta, points out that higher recycling rates ultimately may not be achieved when legislators take certain goal-setting directions. For example, he says, legislation that would force newsprint mills to consume a certain percentage of recycled fiber for a certain percentage of the newsprint manufactured could have a very different effect from, say, legislation that simply requires a publisher's total annual consumption of newsprint to contain a certain percentage of recycled fiber.

To illustrate the point, Levetan contrasts two hypothetical states: one that requires a publisher to use 25 percent "recycled newsprint," which contains 4.0-percent recycled fiber, and another that requires a publisher's total newsprint consumption to contain a total of 25 percent recycled fiber.

In the first state, to satisfy the requirement, a publisher consuming a total of 100,000 tons per year of newsprint could purchase 25,000 tons of 40-percent recycled content newsprint, thereby creating a market for 10,000 tons of ONP (25 percent of 40 percent). In the second state, a publisher consuming 100,000 tons could satisfy the requirement by purchasing any combination of newsprint, such that in total 25 percent of the fiber contained was recycled fiber--resulting in 25,000 tons of ONP being diverted from disposal. The second state would provide a market for 2.5 times as much ONP, while providing both publishers and mills the most flexibility in meeting the goal. Since recycled newsprint mills today use anywhere from 40-percent to 100-percent ONP as feedstock, in the case of the first state, Levetan believes, there would be no incentive for a null to use 100-percent recycled furnish. Economic considerations do not necessarily favor the use of scrap paper-especially ONP--compared with virgin pulp sources, particularly in areas of the country with abundant and cheap pulp wood supplies. As a result, a newsprint manufacturer heretofore using 100-percent ONP might end up with an economic incentive (unintended by the legislation) to actually reduce its total scrap paper intake. This would still satisfy mandated goals since more recycled newsprint might be produced; however, less demand would be created for ONP.

Looking Ahead

Trying to guess how domestic newsprint producers intend to meet the challenge of increased ONP usage is an impossible task. Davis Recycling Consultants has looked at three possible scenarios: converting existing newsprint capacity to 40 percent recycled content; building new 100-percent recycled mills; and combining the first two. By Davis's calculations--assuming that half of the U.S. newsprint requirement contains a minimum 40-percent recycled content--an additional 2.5 million tons of recycled newsprint capacity would be required.

Another forecast, prepared by the National Solid Wastes Management Association, calculates that by 1995, 3.8 million tons of ONP will be used in the manufacture of newsprint: That's more than double the amount used in 1988. The association sees the total amount of ONP recovered rising to 7.5 million short tons by 1995, an increase of 67 percent over seven years.